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Where is Ernesto Going? Depends on Who You Ask

ernesto sfwmd 080512
sfwmd.gov

One thing is certain when predicting the track of tropical storms and hurricanes….no one ever gets it 100% correct.

Just take a look at the different predictions in play for where Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to go over the next 5 days.  The graphic below shows the official 5 day forecast of strength and track for Ernesto as prepared by the National Hurricane Center as of 2pm, August 5th.

ernesto nhc 080512
nhc.noaa.gov

The National Hurricane Center issues updates every 3 hours on Ernesto.  The meteorologist there base their prediction on numerous observations and data including various weather computer models.

The models at the top of the page show Ernesto will most likely stay in the extreme Southern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Northern Mexico.

However, take a look at some of the models on the graphic below…

ernesto ships 080512
wunderground.com

 

Looks like Texas is still not out of the woods…or it looks like Ernesto may never see the Gulf once it hits Belize.

So, which model is the most likely track for the storm?  The National Hurricane Center usually takes a look at the various models and other data and forms their official track, which is usually the most trusted.

Bottom line is this…we really won’t have a great idea of where Ernesto should be heading (as far as Texas is concerned) until Tuesday or Wednesday.

Of course, a great case scenario for Texas would be a tropical storm at landfall that wouldn’t deliver winds over 50mph, but would be a great rain fall producer…especially for Central and West Texas, but we would like some, too.

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