NWS: More Cool, Wet Weather for Texas , But La Nina Summer Awaits

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has released its guidance on the medium- and long-range forecasts for the United States.

The El Nino pattern looks to be weakening into a neutral situation, sometimes called La Nada. Forecasters expect a La Nina pattern to develop in time for the summer months.

Let's break down what this means for Texas.

Short-range Forecast for Texas

The El Nino pattern usually brings cooler and wetter winter conditions for Texas, which has been the case so far.  Although that pattern is weakening, it's a gradual process. So, it looks like we can still expect more of the same for the remainder of February.

It looks like all of Texas can expect cooler than normal temps for the remainder of this month, and most of the state should have above average rainfall.

This doesn't set the stage for an Arctic Blast coming our way, much of Texas will just be a few degrees below the norms.

However, parts of East Texas could use some more drying out time following downpours that have brought up to a foot of accumulated rainfall over the past 3 weeks.

Medium-Range Forecast for Texas

March offers a few small changes from the short-range forecast.

Temperatures, for the most part, will remain below normal for the month, however, our precipitation amount is expected to be close to the norm.

It looks like the area around the Big Bend of Texas could experience a deficit of rainfall.

Springtime Forecast

According to the latest from the Climate Prediction Center, Texas appears to have good odds at having a normal spring when it comes to temps and rainfall, with the exception of a drier than normal outlook for the Big Bend region.

Keep in mind, that a 'normal spring' for much of Texas includes bouts of severe weather.

What About This Summer?

By the time June arrives, the expectation is that we will be heading into a La Nina cycle for the summer and fall. That usually translates into a drier and hotter than normal summer for Texas.

In addition to raising the chances for 100+ heat and wildfire breakouts, La Nina also means that the hurricane season could be brutal.

Confidence Level of the Forecast

Remember, medium to long-range forecasts are good for generalizations. I'm not going to bet against the forecasts by the Climate Prediction Center, but we all know that Texas weather can be fickle and unpredictable.