Could Nicholas Break Rainfall Records Set by Hurricane Harvey?
On August 26, 2017, Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane. The storm then looped back into the Gulf of Mexico and made a second landfall near Galveston as a tropical storm. The slow moving storm dumped record rainfall around southeast Texas. In fact, a total of 60.58 inches of rain was measured in Nederland, Texas, easily a new record for the most rainfall produced by a single storm system in the U.S.
Could the newly-formed Tropical Storm Nicholas eclipse that record?
It would seem unthinkable that a once-in-a-century event could happen again within five years. However, the Euro Weather Model is forecasting that storms from Nicholas will dump upwards of 61 inches of rain in an isolated area south of La Grange, Texas, which is about 90 miles west of Houston.
IS NICHOLAS REALLY GOING TO DUMP FIVE FEET OF RAIN?
According to most every weather model, probably not. But, it is definitely expected to bring flooding to parts of southeast Texas. Between now and the end of the week, rainfall totals along and near the coastline could easily top a foot of rain, with some amounts over two feet. Flash flood watches have already been issued across the central Texas coastline and more will probably go up for the Galveston/Houston area.
HOW MUCH RAIN FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS?
As of Sunday evening, Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to track through the heart of the Pineywoods. By that time, it will be a tropical depression, but it will moving at a snail's pace which will allow it to dump anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of rain throughout the first part of this week. There may be isolated areas south of Lufkin and Nacogdoches that could receive upwards of 10 inches of rain.
HOW MUCH STRONGER IS NICHOLAS GOING TO GET?
Right now, Tropical Storm Nicholas has top winds of 40 mph. It is expected to strengthen as it skirts the south Texas coastline before making landfall overnight Monday near Corpus Christi. A slight move to the west and the storm could make landfall further south and therefore limit its strengthening. A slight jog to the east and Nicholas will be over the Gulf waters just a little longer which could allow it to strengthen to a hurricane. Just in case, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Texas coastline from Port Aransas to Sargent.
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
There are a lot of variables in play over the next 48 hours. A slight deviation in the track of Nicholas could make the difference between a couple inches of rain in Deep East Texas or a foot of rain. Listen to KICKS 105 for updates and download the KICKS 105 App for weather alerts to be sent to your smartphone.
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