Heavy Rain Expected In East Texas This Weekend, With 2 To 6 Inches Possible

Multiple rounds of heavy downpours are expected to inundate much of East Texas on Saturday. Forecasters are still uncertain about the threat of severe weather. Still, all the computer models agree that anyone living from the ArkLaTex to the Houston Metro should brace themselves for 2 to 6 inches of rain by the end of the weekend.

READ MORE: Nacogdoches Teen Survives Hill Country Flood Horror

When Will The Downpours Hit East Texas?

Rain chances in most of East Texas will start to increase Friday afternoon and evening. However, the chances of downpours will jump significantly after midnight and then last throughout the day and possibly the evening hours on Saturday.

The National Weather Service in Shreveport gives much of Lufkin, Tyler, and the surrounding areas a better than 70% chance of accumulating over 3 inches of rain.

The map below is the National Weather Service's Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Anywhere shaded in yellow has at least a 15% chance of being near an area that will receive enough rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. You'll notice that all of Deep East Texas and southeast Texas are included. This should spell some relief for the numerous burn bans in our area.

What About The Threat of Severe Weather?

This remains somewhat fluid according to guidance from the Storm Prediction Center. Deep East Texas is in the green marginal risk area on Saturday, while Houston/Galveston is in the slight risk zone. The values of several variables are still up in the air, so this yellow area may be expanded to the Pineywoods, or it could shrink. We should know more about that in the next 12-24 hours. Regardless, damaging straight-line winds and several tornadoes are not out of the question.

Colder Air On The Way

The storms will usher in cooler air for the Pineywoods, but a reinforcing blast will move in by Wednesday. The high temperatures next Wednesday across east and northeast Texas are expected to be between 65-70.