Will East Texas Get Needed Downpours…On Halloween?

The East Texas weather has been drier than petrified granola...that sounded better in my head before I wrote it down. Lufkin is nearly 15 inches below normal rainfall, and this could go down as the driest September/October period on record. As of this posting, Lake Sam Rayburn is 11.2 feet below flood pool and under 62% full. I've seen some recent photos of the lake on social media, and the exposed land is amazing - and not in a good way.

No Relief Until Halloween?

I've been taking a look at various computer weather models and gauging when our next chance of widespread rain will happen. All of them agree that the dry weather will continue through next Wednesday. One model shows a slight chance of showers mainly just west of Lufkin/Nacogdoches. However, almost all computer simulations indicate widespread rain on or around October 31.

Is This Another False Alarm?

A lot of things can change in a forecast that's still over a week away, but since so many models are in agreement, confidence would seem to be high in some sort of rain event in the Pineywoods on or around Halloween. There are some substantial variances in expected rainfall amounts. The GFS model shows Lufkin only getting about a quarter-inch of rain, while the US(AI) model expects over an inch to fall in our area.

If these computer models prove correct, a lot of East Texans are going to be extremely happy with the needed rain, but it could bring a lot of soggy headaches for trick-or-treating on Saturday, October 31.