A Major Hurricane is Heading Towards Texas, Should We Be Worried?

A major Category 3 hurricane is brushing past the western coast of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. The 18th named storm of this very active hurricane season is named Rafael.

At noon on Wednesday, November 6, Hurricane Rafael has sustained winds of 115 mph. It is moving northwest at 15 mph. This movement is expected over the next 24 hours, however, a turn toward due west is expected later in the week. That would seem to put Rafael on a collision course with the Texas coastline.

Should Texas Be Concerned with Rafael?

First things first: whenever there is a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, anyone who lives from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, Florida, should be concerned due to the unpredictability of these storms. That being said, almost all computer models (for now, at least) expect Rafael to weaken drastically by the weekend.

Wherever Rafael makes landfall, it may be nothing more than an area of heavy rain with some gusty winds. It may end up being referred to as the storm formerly known as Rafael.

Where Will Rafael Make Landfall?

In the map above, you'll notice the huge bubble of uncertainty. Hurricane Rafael is expected to hit a 'brick wall' by Sunday, slowing the system's forward motion to a crawl.

Some models show Rafael making a quick turn to the north or northeast toward Louisiana or a more eastward landfall. Other models show Rafael's track taking a southern dip toward Mexico. This may allow the hurricane to retain some of its strength.

What Will Rafael Bring to Texas?

If the forecast models are true, then a little higher swells along the Texas coast may be the only action we get from Rafael. A reinforcing cold front will bring more chances of rain this weekend, but that precipitation won't be associated with the tropical system.

There's a less than 10% chance that Rafael will bring tropical storm-force winds to anywhere along the U.S. coastline.

Of course, that's still around 72+ hours away, so things could change. If they do, we will let you know.