Today’s Severe Weather Has Forecasters Concerned, Is Texas Safe?

A very dangerous severe weather outbreak could be set to explode this afternoon and evening across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is not painting a favorable picture for this Memorial Day Weekend.

A Scary Scenario

I won't go into the specific numbers and atmospheric physics, but the data that forecasters use to predict the potential intensity and magnitude of a severe weather outbreak are very concerning. We've already had a volatile spring across the South and Midwest, but many computer models are showing data that have been unmatched so far this season.

This has led meteorologists to use phrases such as violent, significant, intense and long-track when discussing the tornado potential. Destructive and giant have been used to describe the hail that may pound this region.

Straight-line winds that may rival what the Houston Metro saw last week (80+ mph) are a possibility.

Where Should These Storms Occur

The bull's-eye for this severe weather outbreak drives right through the heart of Oklahoma and into south-central and southeastern Kansas. However, anyone living in a swath from Abilene, Texas through D/FW and all the way to the Nebraska border should remain alert to possible watches and warnings.

Tornado Outlook

The region that looks to have the best chance of strong to intense tornadoes is roughly along the same area as described in the paragraph above.

The hatched area from Abilene to Oklahoma City to north of Wichita has the highest percentage of experiencing an EF2 or greater tornado.

Hail Outlook

Hail the size of ping pong balls up to softballs could occur in these supercells that are expected to rapidly intensify late this afternoon and through the evening hours.

Once again, the hatched area including north-central Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas looks to be in harm's way, however, a pocket in south-central Kansas has almost a 50/50 shot of experiencing giant hail.

Destructive Winds

Damaging straight-line winds are in the mix for much of the southern Plains, but the region around Wichita, Kansas will have the best chance at winds gusting to hurricane force or better.

East Texas Outlook

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It looks like the severe weather threat will stay to our north and west. You may get treated to a heck of a light show when you look in that direction tonight. There is a slight chance of severe storms along the I-30 corridor just to the east of Dallas, but the biggest concern for most East Texans will be the sweltering heat for this holiday weekend.