Dangerous East Texas Tornado Outbreak Possible on Mardi Gras

Fat Tuesday is coming on March 4. The huge climax to the Mardi Gras festivities may take a back seat to an outbreak of severe weather that is expected to develop from East Texas to the Smoky Mountains. The Storm Prediction Center shows that the highest risk of dangerous storms (brown shaded area) will occur from East Texas through portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

Storm Prediction Center/NOAA

The map above is quite concerning. This is the Thursday morning 6-day outlook. Rarely does a medium to long-range forecast map have enough confidence to show an enhanced risk probability.

What Does The Brown Enhanced Area Mean?

This means there is a 30% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of you on Tuesday. At this time, this includes Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Tyler, Longview, as well as Trinity, Houston, Cherokee, Shelby, Sabine, and San Augustine Counties.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some red shading enter the map over the next 48-72 hours. That would raise the risk level from enhanced to moderate, meaning widespread severe storms are likely.

Are Tornadoes Possible on Tuesday?

Yes.

In fact, a few intense, long-track tornadoes are not out of the question. EF2+ tornadoes are possible, especially in the brown-shaded enhanced region. Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are also in the mix.

Timing of the Storms

Severe storms are bad but they are even more so when they strike at night. Thankfully, most computer models are showing that most of the storm activity in East Texas should occur between midday and late afternoon.

Keep in mind that we are still several days away from Tuesday, and there could be some changes to this outlook.