Just How Bad Will This East Texas Ice Storm Be? Models Disagree
As of Saturday afternoon, all of Deep East Texas is under a Winter Weather Advisory. Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex are under a Winter Storm Warning.
Here's What We Know Will Happen
It's going to get bone-chilling cold. A mass of Arctic air will begin moving into Pineywoods late Saturday night. The highs on Sunday will be in the 30s and then dropping into the mid-20s Sunday night.
We may not get above the freezing mark from Sunday evening through lunchtime Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet to the teens both Monday and Tuesday night with wind chills approaching 0 in some areas.
Light precipitation is expected to move into Deep East Texas by late Sunday and throughout the morning hours on Monday. This will be frozen precipitation. Will it be freezing rain? Sleet? Snow? Exactly how much will we get?
Here's What We Are Uncertain Of
It's a pretty good bet that Tyler/Longview and all areas to their east, north, and south will have significant icing conditions Sunday evening through Monday morning. That is why the National Weather Service has them under a Winter Storm Warning.
Residents that live south of Tyler/Longview are under the Winter Weather Advisory. Officially, the National Weather Service believes that counties under this advisory could see light freezing drizzle or rain, or possibly some sleet.
Radial ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.2 inches may occur. That's nowhere near the crippling ice storm that we had in 2021, but isolated driving issues and power outages could occur.
But, various weather computer models are still disagreeing on how the winter weather will play out in East Texas.
What The Weather Models Are Showing
National Weather Service - Forecasting that about 0.1 inch of ice could accumulate in the Lufkin/Nacogdoches area. That would have minimal effects on power outages and dangerous driving.
ECMWF - This European model is a little more aggressive with the ice totals. It shows the Lufkin/Nacogdoches area getting up to 0.4 inches of icy precipitation, and areas just north of Nacogdoches could see a half inch or more of ice. Any accumulations over 0.25 would lead to numerous outages, downed limbs, and dangerous driving conditions.
UK - This weather model from the United Kingdom shows Lufkin/Nacogdoches getting up to 0.15 inches of ice, while areas east of Lufkin could get slightly more.
IC - The Icon weather model from Germany shows hardly any ice accumulations in the Lufkin/Nacogdoches area
GEM - The Global Environmental Multiscale Model based in Canada shows ice accumulations of 0.1-0.2 in the immediate Lufkin/Nacogdoches area. Alto, Mt. Enterprise and other areas to the north should get slightly more.
ARP - This model shows 0.2-0.3 inches of ice to be widespread across Deep East Texas.
CMA - 0.2 inches of ice accumulation is expected to be widespread across the Pineywoods
UM - The Unified Model based in the United Kingdom expects 0.1-0.2 inches of ice accumulation
It looks like most of the models are pointing towards 0.1-0.2 inches of ice accumulation. That shouldn't present too many problems. Some scattered power outages and driving issues would result.
However, this is a very fluid situation and a rogue band of heavier precipitation could cause major issues. So, keep up to date with the changing weather and be prepared for power outages.
Texans Should Stock Their Vehicles With This Winter Supplies
Gallery Credit: Chrissy