Groundhog? Here’s The Real East Texas Forecast for 6 More Weeks

The Groundhog is Cute and All, But...

Punxsutawney Phil may be furry, cuddly, and charming (as far as rodents go), but the boy is not much for forecasting accuracy. When it comes to his powers of winter prognostication, that old woodchuck should stick to chucking wood, if he could chuck wood.

According to research into his 100+ weather outlooks, Phil has been on target just 39% of the time. That works out to a great batting average in baseball, but not so much if you're a glorified buck-toothed beaver trying to be the next Jim Cantore.

Not to mention, he's based in Pennsylvania. That's like 8 states, 5 major rivers, and 2 coal mines from East Texas. We don't have the same climate.

What is the Official East Texas Long-Range Forecast?

Let's start with the month of February. So far, it has been a rainy and very cold start to the month. However, the meteorologists over at the Climate Prediction Center apparently are not seeing their shadows.

Over the next four weeks, our temperatures in the Pineywoods should be in the area of leaning above or likely above normal. That means we should see quite a few 60s and 70s for highs in February.

Take that, you dumb rodent!

I'm not so thrilled with the map above, however.  We've been very wet since the start of 2023, and it looks like we will continue to be leaning that way in Deep East Texas. Then again, so will Pennsylvania.

How About the Next Three Months?

Punxsutawney Phil's range only goes through six weeks. Let's take a look at what our non-marmots are saying about the next three months for East Texas.

Looks like we can expect our temps to be above normal for the last part of winter and the early spring. I know I will probably be begging for frigid weather when August rolls around, but right now, bring on the warmth.

Looks like we will have our normal amount of rainfall for the upcoming 3-month period.  Since the earlier map showed a wet February, I guess the rains should slack off for March and April.

The Accuracy of Long-Range Forecasts

The farther out you try to forecast something, the less accurate you will be (unless you're forecasting the likelihood of the Dallas Cowboys making it to the Super Bowl with Jerry Jones at the helm). Sorry, I've been living that nightmare for about 3 decades.

So, the above maps and coinciding forecasts are not necessarily high in confidence. However, I'd rather put my trust in those than a hairy groundhog who lives in a tree in a place called Gobbler's Knob.